You may have been trying to make money betting on horse races for years or you may have just started betting, but whatever the case may be and no matter how long you’ve been a horse player, there is always room for improvement. Handicapping races means being aware of ever changing trends, biases, statistics. One thing we all learn is that we have to keep an open mind and be willing to change our opinions and views in order to stay ahead of the crowd.
One of the most important points any horse player can learn is that when using the past performances to predict the future, you can’t expect each horse to run the same as it did in its last race. Take a moment to think about that and ask yourself how many times you look at a horse and expect it to register the same speed figure and running style as it did in its last race. Sooner or later, we all fall into that trap.
Because of modern training methods and the rigors of racing, some things have changed over the years. At one time, not long ago, the form cycle was considered the most important factor in picking winners. Trying to figure out how much or how little a horse improved or declined from his or her last race was considered the most important factor in handicapping. There was a time when horses very rarely won on their first or second race after a layoff, but that is no longer the case.
Trainers often bring a horse back to the races today ready to run first time out. Some horses still need a race or two, but many don’t. Yet you will still hear people talk about how many days it has been since a horse raced and to quote statistics about “recency.” While you may still cling to the idea that a horse needs a few races before being considered a contender, ask yourself how much that idea is costing you.
If enough people still handicap that way, then it is reflected in the odds and means that if you go against that rule, you may get some better payoffs. This is just one example of the one thing you can do right now to instantly improve your handicapping and especially, you’re chances of making money betting on horse races. Here is what you must do. Question everything, especially the things that you think are irrefutably true and cannot possibly be wrong. If you believe it, so do many other horse players. Turn the tables and start to think, “outside the box,” as they say.
Ask yourself, “If I were to bet on horses regardless of the layoff and recent race factor, would I make more money?” Then start to challenge every other handicapping notion you may have.